Nationally, the welfare caseload declined by more than fifty percent between 1994 and 2000. Considerable research has been devoted to understanding what caused this decline. Much of the literature examining these changes has modeled the total caseload (the stock) directly. Klerman and Haider...

Using data from nationwide and California-specific surveys, the authors provide evidence on the importance of the number of "entries" into the welfare system to explain the decline in welfare caseload during the late 1990s.

Time limits represent a substantial departure from previous welfare policy. Theory suggests that their effects should vary according to the age of the youngest child of the family. I test this prediction using data from the Current Population Survey and find that time limits indeed have larger...