The break-even inflation rate (the difference between nominal and real rates) is the main indicator of future price level. However, inflation expectation is only one of its components. In this article we present a simple economic model in order to split the break-even inflation rate in the...

This article develops leading indicators based on the cross-section of stock returns. The underlying assumption is that any information about future states of nature must be reflected in current stock prices. Three indicators are proposed: the approach employed by Allen et al. (2012), an...

In this article we study the deposit-taking and lending behavior of Brazilian banks before and after the subprime crisis. The distribution of both series present changes between these two periods. In addition, we implemented a vector autoregression model in order to construct the impulse...

Pricing interest rate derivatives is a challenging task that has attracted the attention of many researchers in recent decades. Portfolio and risk managers, policymakers, traders and more generally all market participants are looking for valuable information from derivative instruments. We use a...

The aim of this study is to examine whether investors who trade daily but at different times have distinct perceptions about the risk of an asset. In order to capture the uncertainty faced by these investors, we define the volatility perceived by investors as the distribution of standard...

Hansen and Jagannathan (1997) compare misspecified asset pricing models based on least-square projections on a family of admissible stochastic discount factors. We extend their fundamental contribution by considering Minimum Discrepancy (MD) projections where misspecification is measured by...

Hansen and Jagannathan (1997) compare misspecified asset pricing models based on least-square projections on a family of admissible stochastic discount factors. We extend their fundamental contribution by considering Minimum Discrepancy (MD) projections where misspecification is measured by...

Based on a family of discrepancy functions, we derive nonparametric stochastic discount factor (SDFs) bounds that naturally generalize variance (Hansen and Jagannathan, 1991), entropy (Backus, Chernov and Martin, 2011), and higher-moment (Snow, 1991) bounds. These bounds are especially useful to...

We use bank-level data to model the demand for bank services in Brazil following the discrete choice literature. A multinomial logit specification is used to study the demand for time deposits, for an aggregate of demand and passbook savings deposits, and for loans. Market for each of these...

Fixed income options contain substantial information on the price of interest rate volatility risk. In this paper, we ask if those options will provide information related to other moments of the objective distribution of interest rates. Based on a dynamic term structure model, we find that...