The paper deals with the power and robustness of the R/S type tests under contiguous alternatives. We briefly review the long memory models in levels and volatility, and describe the R/S-type tests used to test for the presence of long memory. The empirical power of the tests is investigated...

This paper studies the spurious regressions among stationary Gegenbauer processes, stationary harmonic processes and deterministic trigonometric series. We find the spurious regression can occur between two stationary Gegenbauer processes, as long as their generalized fractional differencing...

This paper offers an econometric methodology for the detection of self-organisational change (defined in terms of the presence of time irreversibility, structural change and fundamental uncertainty) in economic precesses that follow logistic diffusion growth paths in historical time. The...

Several lessons learned from a Bayesian analysis of basic economic time series models by means of the Gibbs sampling algorithm are presented. Models include the Cochrane-Orcutt model for serial correlation, the Koyck distributed lag model, the Unit Root model, the Instrumental Variables model...

In this paper we deal with the problem of non-stationarity encountered in a lot of data sets, mainly in financial and economics domains, coming from the presence of multiple seasonnalities, jumps, volatility, distorsion, aggregation, etc. Existence of non-stationarity involves spurious behaviors...

The present paper seeks to cast scepticism on the validity and value of the results of all earlier studies in India on energy demand analysis and forecasting based on time series regression, on three grounds. (i) As these studies did not care for model adequacy diagnostic checking, indispensably...

The paper introduces some simplifying tools and methods for studying Rational Beliefs and for proving existence of Rational Belief Equilibria: We identify a set of stable non-stationary stochastic processes, named SIDS processes. Furthermore we introduce the concept of a Rational Belief...

The paper utilizes modern econometric techniques organized around I(1) and cointegration analysis to examine the number of common, stochastic long-run trends in regional incomes and assess the hypothesis of regional convergence for the US over the period 1929-1997. Time series evidence is...

We present a road map for effective application of Bayesian analysis of a class of well-known dynamic econometric models by means of the Gibbs sampling algorithm. Members belonging to this class are the Cochrane-Orcutt model for serial correlation, the Koyck distributed lag model, the Unit Root...

This study documents the statistical properties of the stock returns on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) for the January 1988 to December 1999 period and tries to assess the evolution of the underlying stochastic structure over this time period. It also investigates empirically the relative...