A recent study of 36 sub-Saharan African countries found a positive impact of aid in the absolute majority of these countries. However, for Tanzania and Ghana, two major aid recipients, aid did not seem to have been equally beneficial. This paper singles

The economics profession appears to have been unaware of the long build-up to the current worldwide financial crisis and to have significantly underestimated its dimensions once it started to unfold. In our view, this lack of understanding is due to a misallocation of research efforts in...

The multivariate cointegration model in the autoregressive and the moving average form is discussed in terms of long run relations and common trends driving the system. The basic results needed for the cointegration analysis of processes integrated of order 2 are reviewed, and the notion of weak...

This paper examines the interrelations between purchasing power parity, uncovered interest parity, the term structure of interest rates and the Fisher real interest rate parity using cointegration analysis. Dynamic adjustment and feed-back effects are estimated jointly in a full system of...

Asset prices tend to undergo wide swings around long-run equilibrium values which can have detrimental effects on the real economy. To get a better understanding of how the fi?nancial sector and the real economy interact this paper models the long swings in the Swiss franc-US dollar foreign...

Some key econometric concepts and problems addressed by Trygve Haavelmo and Ragnar Frisch are discussed within the general framework of a cointegrated VAR. The focus is on problems typical of time series data such as multicollinearity, spurious correlation and regression results, time dependent...

Researchers seldom find evidence of I (2) in exchange rates, prices, and other macroeconomics time series when they test the order of integration using univariate Dickey-Fuller tests. In contrast, when using the multivariate ML trace test we frequently find double unit roots in the data. Our...

The purpose of this paper is to give a systematic account of the maximum likelihood inference concerning cointegration vectors in non-stationary vector value autoregressive time series with Gaussian errors. The hypothesis of r cointegration vectors is given a simple parametric formulation in...

In this paper we address the question of how to derive a statistically well-defined empirical model and the closely related question of how to choose the observational variables. Since the data are nonstationary, the derived empirical model is based on the multivariate cointegration model. The...

The notions of instrument, intermediate target and final target are defined in the context of the cointegrated VAR. A target variable is said to be controllable if it can be made stationary around a desired target value by using the instrument. This can be expressed as a condition on the...