We present an analysis of the register of all unemployment episodes in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg over a recent period of 55 months. We apply propensity score matching to account for the systematic differences among the groups of subjects (registrants) and unemployment spells. We devise...

A method of small-area estimation with a utility function is developed. The utility characterises a policy planned to be implemented in each area, based on the area's estimate of a key quantity. It is shown by simulations that the commonly applied composite and empirical Bayes estimators are...

We show on an application to small-area statistics that efficient estimation is not always conducive to good policy decisions, because the established inferential procedures have no capacity to incorporate the priorities and preferences of the policy makers and the related consequences of...

We compare a set of empirical Bayes and composite estimators of the population means of the districts (small areas) of a country, and show that the natural modelling strategy of searching for a well fitting empirical Bayes model and using it for estimation of the area-level means can be inefficient.

This report comprises four reactions to the recent policy statement in Basic and Applied Social Psychology that announced a ban on null-hypothesis testing in that journal. A personal perspective is presented which agrees with the editors that null-hypothesis testing has become dysfunctional, but...

An EM algorithm for fitting mixtures of autoregressions of low order is constructed and the properties of the estimators are explored on simulated and real datasets. The mixture model incorporates a component with an improper density, which is intended for outliers. The model is proposed as an...

This article is concerned with the analysis of a random sample from a binomial distribution when all the outcomes are zero (or unity). We discuss how elicitation of the prior can be reduced to asking the expert whether (and which of) the so-called borderline or equilibrium priors are plausible.

This paper proposes a framework to implement regression-based tests of predictive ability in unstable environments, including, in particular, forecast unbiasedness and efficiency tests, commonly referred to as tests of forecast rationality. Our framework is general: it can be applied to...

We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, exposure...