This paper introduces the new Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA) model of the Banque de France for forecasting France's GDP. As the previous versions, the model relies exclusively on data from the monthly business survey (EMC) conducted by the Banque de France. However, several major...

The debate on the forecasting ability in economics of non-linear models has a long history, and the Great Recession provides us with an opportunity for a re-assessment of the forecasting performance of several classes of non-linear models, widely used in applied macroeconomic research. In this...

This paper proposes an empirical investigation of the impact of oil price forecast errors on inflation forecast errors for two different sets of recent forecasts data: the median of SPF inflation forecasts for the U.S. and the Central Bank inflation forecasts for France. Mainly two salient...

This paper explores the existence of a bounce-back effect in inventory investment using the European Commission opinion survey on stocks of finished products in manufacturing and retail trade sectors. The data are quarterly balance for France, Germany and a European aggregate, from 1985q1 to...

La courbe dite « de Beveridge » illustre la relation entre taux de chômage et taux d’emplois vacants. En ce qui concerne la zone euro, le redressement du taux de chômage et la hausse des difficultés de recrutement depuis la récession de 2008-2009 témoignent d’un risque...

Cet article propose un examen des effets de la mondialisation sur la volatilite macroeconomique des pays occidentaux, dans le care d'un modele stochastique d'equilibre general dynamique a deux pays et deux biens. Ces pays se distinguent essentiellement par les proportions de travailleurs...

The high persistence of the PPP deviations is well documented in empirical work about real exchange rates. Our paper explores the possibility that, in presence of e.g. shipping costs, a nonlinear representation is more relevant for the real exchange rate.

In this paper we use a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) model to capture the non-linear dynamics of 7 real effective exchange rates, defines for the recent floating period. The so-called real exchange rate -real interest rate model is exploited in a novel way to define the thresholds.