This paper uses a dynamic accounting identity developed by Campbell to decompose movements in bond prices into elements due to changes in real interest rates, expected term premia and expected inflation. This decomposition is applied to UK short and long-maturity nominal bonds and index-linked...

Over the past 40 years the size of the UK banking system has grown dramatically and under plausible assumptions it could continue to grow rapidly. This article examines a number of issues related to the size of the UK banking system, including why it is so big and what empirical evidence tells...

Over the recent decades researchers in academia and central banks have developed early warning systems (EWS) designed to warn policy makers of potential future economic and financial crises. These EWS are based on diverse approaches and empirical models. In this paper we compare the performance...

ABSTRACT The financial crisis has demonstrated the need for a set of macroprudential policy tools that can be used to mitigate systemic risk. Focusing on the UK, our paper reviews the performance of the Basel III credit‐to‐GDP gap that, alongside judgement, is to be used as a reference guide...

The Latin American debt crises in the 1980s and the Asian crisis in the late 1990s both provided impetus for reforming the framework for restructuring sovereign debt. In the late 1980s, the Brady plan established the importance of substantive debt relief in addressing some crises. A decade...

The European economic and monetary union (EMU) is now over 4 years old. In this paper we assess whether monetary union has begun to have significant economic effects by comparing countries in EMU with the EU countries outside. We focus principally on trade creation between EMU member countries,...

This paper estimates expected future real interest rates and inflation rates from observed prices of UK government nominal and index-linked bonds. The estimation method takes account of imperfections in the indexation of UK index-linked bonds. It assumes that expected log returns on all bonds...