This article assesses the implications of discounting on a result derived by Bean (1998): that in a model of monetary policy where policy acts with a lag, the outcomes of monetary policy are very similar for a wide range of preferences of the monetary authority with respect to inflation and...

Accurate prediction of extreme events are of primary importance in many financial applications. The properties of historical simulation and Risk Metrics techniques for computing Valu-at Risk (VaR) are compared with a method which involves modelling the tails of financial returns explicitly with...

We examine the relationship between the risk premium on the S&P500 index total return and its conditional variance. We propose a new semiparametric model in which the conditional variance process is parametric, while the conditional mean is an arbitrary function of the conditional variance. For...

No abstract is available.

No abstract is available.

Mervyn King is the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England and a co-founder of the LSE Financial Markets Group. On Wednesday 29 October 1997 he gave a public lecture at the LSE to mark the 10th anniversary of the Financial Markets Group and the 5th annivesay of the Bank of England Inflation...

No Abstract is Available.

The conventional view of market timing suggests an unambiguous, negative relation between equity misvaluation and the equity share in new issues|that is, rms with overvalued equity issue more equity and, all else equal, less debt. We question this conventional view in the paper. Using price...