AbstractThis paper investigates the macroeconomic projections of the German government since the 1970s and compares it to those of the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an independent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that both nominal GDP projections are upward biased for...

In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a large data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a...

Over the last decade, the topic of regional economic forecasting has become increasingly prevalent in academic literature. The most striking problem in this context is data availability at a regional level. However, considerable methodological improvements have been made to address this problem....

In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross-value added (GVA) and its sectoral sub-components at the regional level. We are probably the first who evaluate sectoral forecasts at the regional level using a huge data set at quarterly frequency to investigate this issue. With an...

Der ifo Geschäftsklimaindex für die ostdeutschen Bundesländer ist im März 2015 um 0,8 Indexpunkte auf 108,5 Punkte gestiegen (vgl. Abb. 1). Maßgeblich für den Anstieg des Klimaindikators sind die erheblich optimistischeren Geschäftserwartungen, die sich zum ersten Mal seit August 2014...

We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and international) for the years 1998 to 2013. We explicitly use the ragged-edge data structure and consider the different information sets faced by a regional forecaster within each...

In this study, we evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errorsfor export growth than indicators obtained from hard data such as price and costcompetitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses and forecastencompassingtests reveal that survey-based indicators...

Over the last decade, the topic of regional economic forecasting has become increasingly prevalent in academic literature. The most striking problem in this context is data availability at a regional level. However, considerable methodological improvements have been made to address this problem....

In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a large data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden- Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a...

Das ifo Geschäftsklima für die gewerbliche Wirtschaft Ostdeutschlands hat sich im Januar leicht verbessert (vgl. Abb. 1). Nach Angaben der ostdeutschen Befragungsteilnehmer sind diese mit ihren momentanen Geschäften spürbar zufriedener als im Vormonat. Jedoch haben sich die...