labor force from being unemployed is higher than the likelihood that he or she will move from unemployment to employment. We …

We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and … measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic … vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with …

conditions are a major determinant of entrepreneurship.Higher local unemployment rates are found to increase the probability that … initially not employed respond more to highlocal unemployment rates by starting businesses than wage/salary workers. The results … higher levels of business creation. Using the regression estimates for thelocal unemployment rate effects, I find that the …

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent … with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun … coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various …

Italy in 2007 and 2011. We measure the severity of the recession in terms of increases in the adult and youth unemployment … unemployment rate worsens the financial condition of the family, raising the drop-out probability. On the other hand, by reducing … the opportunity cost of tertiary education, an increase in the youth unemployment rate reduces the drop-out probability …