This paper studies the cyclical fluctuations in unemployment and vacancies in a search and matching model in which workers lose skills during periods of unemployment. Firms’ profits fluctuate more because aggregate productivity affects the economy’s average human capital. Moreover,...

This paper studies the cyclical fluctuations in unemployment and vacancies in a search and matching model in which workers lose skills during periods of unemployment. Firms' profits fluctuate more because aggregate productivity affects the economy's human capital level. Moreover, wages for...

We derive some new results on the expectation of quadratic forms in normal and nonnormal variables. Using a nonstochastic operator, we show that the expectation of the product of an arbitrary number of quadratic forms in noncentral normal variables follows a recurrence formula. This formula...

Three analytical approaches to plan models for sustainable development are identified in the literature: economic analysis, decision analysis and system analysis. Essence of those three are taken together in an integrated framework to devise a diagnostic methodology to the path of...

This paper analyzes the direction and timing of information flow be- tween prices, polls, and media coverage of events traded on prediction markets. We examine the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clin- ton in the 2008 Democratic primaries for presidential nomination and ask the following...

We examine the theoretical interrelations between progressive income taxation and macroeconomic (in)stability in an otherwise standard one-sector real business cycle model with utility-generating government purchases of goods and services. When private and public consumption expenditures are...

The artificial neural network (ANN) test of Lee et al. (Journal of Econometrics 56, 269–290, 1993) uses the ability of the ANN activation functions in the hidden layer to detect neglected functionalmisspecification. As the estimation of the ANN model is often quite difficult, LWG...

Phillips (1977a, 1977b) made seminal contributions to time series finite-sample theory, and then, he was among the first to develop the distributions of estimators and forecasts in stationary time series models, see Phillips (1978, 1979), among others. From the mid-eighties Phillips (1987a,...

The “commodity currency†literature highlights the robust exchange rate response to fluctuations in world commodity prices that occurs for major commodity exporters. The magnitude of this response, however, varies widely among countries. Our panel data analysis using 63 countries for...

The literature on excess return prediction has considered a wide array of estimation schemes, among them unrestricted and restricted regression coefficients. We consider bootstrap aggregation (bagging) to smooth parameter restrictions. Two types of restrictions are considered: positivity of the...