We explore the benefits of forecast combinations based on forecast-encompassing tests compared to simple averages and to Bates-Granger combinations. We also consider a new combination method that fuses test-based and Bates-Granger weighting. For a realistic simulation design, we generate...

We study the benefits of forecast combinations based on forecast-encompassing tests relative to uniformly weighted forecast averages across rival models. For a realistic simulation design, we generate multivariate time-series samples of size 40 to 200 from a macroeconomic DSGE-VAR model....

In evaluating prediction models, many researchers flank comparative ex-ante prediction experiments by significance tests on accuracy improvement, such as the Diebold-Mariano test. We argue that basing the choice of prediction models on such significance tests is problematic, as this practice may...

The aim of this paper is to test the claim that social protection is a luxury good. Therefore, GDP elasticity of selected social protection expenditure is estimated using a new econometric approach developed first by Kao and Chiang (Advances in Econometrics, 15, 179-222, 2000). Time series...

The Italian labour market is characterized by large and persistent regional unemployment differentials. This study uses recent panel unit root and cointegration tests to derive the long-run properties of the Italian regional unemployment disparities. The empirical evidence suggests that the...

This paper examines stochastic convergence in real per capita GDP for Italian regions using recent non-stationary panel data methodologies over the period 1951 to 2002. Economies stochastically converge when regional differences across economies are not persistent, and long-run movements in a...