The U.S. peanut program has limited peanut production since 1949. Unlike the programs for grains, cotton, and rice, the 1996 FAIR Act left the peanut program largely intact. As before FAIR (and since 1977) the right to grow peanuts for the domestic edible market is embodied in marketing quota,...

Most financial asset returns exhibit volatility persistence. We investigate this phenomenon in the context of daily returns in commodity futures markets. We show that the time gap between the arrival of news to the markets and the delivery time of futures contracts is the fundamental variable in...

We apply a new Bayesian approach to multiple‐contract futures data. It allows the volatility of futures prices to depend upon physical inventories and the contract's time to delivery—and it allows those parametric effects to vary over time. We investigate price movements for lumber contracts...

We study the difference in the volatility dynamics of CBOT corn, soybeans, and oats futures prices across different delivery horizons via a smoothed Bayesian estimator. We find that futures price volatilities in these markets are affected by inventories, time to delivery, and the crop progress...

Demand analysis requires aggregation of commodities. Some are imposed at the data collection level, leaving some for the estimation level. When data are collected, the implicit assumption underlying the aggregation is perfect substitutability: one gallon of gasoline is viewed by consumers as...

We explore how a landowner’s bid to enroll in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is influenced by his parcel’s designation as a Conservation Priority Area (CPA). A theoretical model of a landowner’s optimal bid is presented, and we demonstrate the ambiguity in a landowner’s optimal...

Awarding a grand prize to the player who wins most often in a series of contests links the contests together and makes incentives in the current contest depend on past performance. A lucky player who wins early faces relatively stronger economic incentives to exert effort because of his early...

This paper analyzes the effects of waterway transportation costs on the spatial distribution of corn prices at U.S. grain markets. Interregional trade theory predicts that in a competitive market price differences between markets are explained by transportation cost. The precise role played by...