We investigated causal factors driving German hog-price dynamics with an innovative ‘diagnostic’ modeling approach. Hog-price cycles are conventionally attributed to randomly-generated behavior best modeled stochastically—most recently as randomly-shifting sinusoidal oscillations....

By allowing for various degrees of asset substitutability between bonds and agricultural products, this paper reexamines the robustness of the overshooting hypothesis of agricultural product prices. It is found, in both a closed economy and an open economy, that the crucial factor determining...

The instability of commodity prices and the hypothesis that speculative behaviour was one of its causes has brought renewed interest in futures markets. The paper analyses the European wheat futures markets (feed and milling) and the Chi- cago Board of Trade’s wheat contract as a...

This study explores the link between proximity and price cointegration between two markets, where proximity is captured with variables for geographical, political and cultural distance. Linear and threshold cointegration is tested for a set of 756 rice market pairs in 6 West African countries,...

The rise of price levels and volatility of world agricultural commodities since 2006-2008 was followed by increased and more volatile food price inflation around the world. Using error correction models, this paper evaluates the velocity and extent to which world agricultural commodity price...

In 2008, wheat futures prices spiked and then crashed along with prices for other agricultural and nonagricultural commodities. Market observers offered several theories to explain this common movement, or comovement, in prices, and have proposed policies to address the perceived problem of...