In this article we examine the persistence nature of Taiwan's aggregate output fluctuations by using the 'innovation regime-switching' (IRS) model in which the effect of an innovation may be permanent or transitory, depending on an unobservable state variable that follows a first order Markov...

In this article, we propose a new test for Markov switching models. Unlike the tests in the existing literature (e.g. Hansen, 1992; Garcia, 1998; Cho and White, 2007), we focus on testing the null of two regimes, instead of one single regime, in a switching framework. To implement our test, we propose a...

This study investigates reasonable price bounds for mortality-linked securities when the issuer has only a partial hedging ability. The price bounds are established by minimizing the difference between the benchmark price and the replicating portfolio cost subject to the gain–loss ratio of...

In this article, we derive an alternative estimation algorithm for the innovation regime-switching model, which avoids the potential divergence problem that may arise from the algorithm proposed by Kuan et al. (2005, JBES). Our simulation demonstrates that the proposed algorithm compares...

In this paper, we propose a temporal disaggregation model with regime switches to disaggregate U.S. quarterly GDP into monthly figures. Alternative to the existing literature, our model is able to capture the nonlinear behaviors of both aggregated and disaggregated output series as well as the...

In this paper we propose a general component-driven model to analyze economic data with different characteristics (or regimes) in different time periods. Motivated by empirical data characteristics, our discussion focuses on a simple model driven by a random walk component and a stationary ARMA...

Various trading rules involving derivatives have been widely applied by practitioners under a wide range of market conditions to date, however, few econometric models can provide a way to accurately decide when to apply those strategies. In this paper, we employ the Innovation Regime-Switching...

In this article, we apply the innovation regime-switching model, recently proposed by Kuan et al. (2005, JBES), to identify turbulent and calm regimes in stock prices. Based on the predictions of both regimes, we construct simple trading rules and investigate their profitability. Our results...

In this paper, we reexamine the permanent income-consumption relationship analytically and empirically, based on the innovation regime-switching (IRS) model developed in [Kuan, C.M., Huang, Y.L., Tsay, R.S., 2005. An unobserved component model with switching permanent and transitory innovations....