We show how to approximate de Finetti's measure of a partially exchangeable sequence by a mixture of products of Dirichlet measures, explicitly built once the approximation error has been fixed. These results are used to give a general method for the elicitation of prior distributions...

The Scaled Model of Error has gained considerable popularity during the past ten years as a device for computing probabilistic population forecasts of the cohort-component type. In this report we investigate how sensitive probabilistic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model...

We argue that fertility trends in advanced societies are in part driven by differences in trust. The argument builds around the idea that trust implies individuals and couples being willing to outsource traditional family activities to other individuals outside their own family. Trust is...

Using data from two recent waves of the European Social Survey, we examine the relationship between macro-level supports for child rearing and individual-level fertility outcomes. We characterize country-level support environments across a broader set of domains than is typical, including...

Using descriptive statistics, civil marriages and marriages preceded by premarital cohabitation are more unstable, i.e., more frequently followed by divorce. However, the literature has shown that selectivity plays an important role in the relationship between premarital cohabitation and union...

During the early 1990s, Italy became one of the first countries to reach lowest-low fertility. This was also a period in which women´s education and labour force participation increased. We analyze the role of women´s (potential) wages on their fertility decisions by making use of two...