The ex post analysis of inflation target fulfilment plays an important role in an inflation targeting framework. The major benefits of ex post analysis are threefold. First, it might improve the forecast accuracy. Second, it helps central bank staff and board members to understand the...

Do private analysts coordinate their forecasts via central bank forecasts? In this paper, we examine private and central bank forecasts for the Czech Republic. The evolution of the standard deviation of private forecasts as well as the distance from the central bank’s forecasts are used...

This paper reviews price-level targeting in the light of current theoretical knowledge and past practical experience. We discuss progress in the economic debate on this issue, starting with the traditional arguments discussed in the early 1990s, moving to Svensson’s seminal paper in the...

This paper shows how the reaction of selected emerging CEE currencies to increased uncertainty depends on market sentiment in a core advanced economy or even on the global scale. On the example of the Czech koruna, a highly stylized model of portfolio allocation between EUR- and CZK-denominated...

Monitoring a suitable set of early warning indicators is crucial for the optimal timing of macroprudential measures aimed at reducing the risk of financial crises or at least mitigating their impact on the economy. This article sets out to identify the indicators that should be monitored and to...