Based on a multivariate non-linear model, this paper recognises an important role for the real exchange rate in affecting UK labour market conditions. The short-run real exchange rate adjusts quickly to disequilibrium deviations of the real exchange rate from its long-run level outside a rather...

This paper provides empirical evidence on the response of monetary policymakers to uncertainty. Using data for the UK since the introduction of inflation targets in October 1992, we find evidence that the impact of inflation on interest rates is lower when inflation is more uncertain and is...

This paper suggests that dividends do not reflect permanent earnings of corporations in periods of high inflation and deflation, and therefore the price-dividend relationship, as predicted by Gordon’s dividend-price model, breaks down. Using data for the US and the UK over the period from 1871...

The “sub-prime” crisis, which led to major turbulence in global financial markets beginning in mid-2007, has posed major challenges for monetary policymakers. We analyse the impact on monetary policy of the widening differential between policy rates and the 3-month Libor rate, the benchmark...

This paper produces evidence in support of the existence of common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets. Using a multivariate smooth transition autoregression (STVAR) framework, we show that the dynamics of the US and UK swap spreads are best described by a regime-switching...