If transitory profitable trading opportunities exist, filter rules are used to mitigate transaction costs. We use a dynamic programming framework to design an optimal filter which maximizes after-cost expected returns. The filter size depends crucially on the degree of persistence of trading...

Can rational stochastic asset bubbles help explain the excess volatility of stock prices? The bubble considered here is treated as an unobserved state vector in the state-space model and is easily estimated using the Kalman filter. I find that the bubble components estimated account for a...

Using a GARCH approach, we estimate a time-varying two-factor international asset pricing model for the weekly equity index returns of 16 OECD countries. We find significant time-variation in the exposure (beta) of country equity index returns to the world market index and in the risk-adjusted...

This paper examines the predictability of equity index returns for 18 developed countries. Based on the variance ratio test, the random walk hypothesis can be rejected at conventional significance levels for 11 countries with daily data and for 15 countries with weekly data. Monthly indices may...

Using a GARCH approach, we estimate a time-varying two-factor international asset pricing model for weekly equity index returns of 16 OECD countries. A trade-weighted basket of exchange rates and the MSCI world market index are used as risk factors. We find significant currency risk exposures in...

We propose a new methodology to provide fair prices of international mutual funds by adjusting prices at the individual securities level using a comprehensive and economically relevant information set. Stepwise regressions are used to endogenously determine the stock-specific optimal set of...

We construct a set of household-level background risk variables to capture the covariance structure of three nonfinancial assets and two financial assets. These risks are in general statistically significant and economically important for a household's stock market participation and stock...

While the vast majority of the literature reports momentum profitability to be overwhelming in the U.S. market and widespread in other countries, this paper finds that the pure momentum strategy in general does not yield excess profitability in the Chinese stock markets. We find instead strong...

It is well documented that real exchange rates between the United States and many industrialized countries in the post- Bretton Woods period are integrated. This result implies that purchasing power parity (PPP) does not hold even as a long-run relationship. This paper demonstrates that the...

We study optimal investment decisions for long-horizon investors with industry-specific labor income risks. We find that in addition to the volatility of labor income growth, the correlation between labor income and risky asset returns is another important factor that affects the optimal...