The purpose of this paper is to answer the three questions in the title. Using a large monthly survey of businesses, we investigate the inflation expectations and uncertainties of firms. We document that, in the aggregate, firm inflation expectations are very similar to the predictions of...

An analysis of broad national and regional trends in manufacturing that questions the validity of many popular beliefs about the decline of the manufacturing sector.

An analysis of the role of foreign investment in U.S. resource allocation, finding that the large influx of foreign capital in the 1980s has been used predominantly to fund domestic investment and consumer investment spending.

A description and examination of the expanding service economy, with the contention that its growth reflects a natural and inevitable response to rising wealth.

An analysis of the changing auto market and of factors affecting sales ( such as consumer income, costs, sticker shock, and affordability), plus a discussion of expectations of 1983 sales.

This paper considers the evidence of “near-rationality,” as described by Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (2000). Using detailed surveys of household inflation expectations for the United States and Sweden, we find that the data are generally unsupportive of the near-rationality hypothesis....

An analysis of the impact of the baby-boom generation's inrush into the work force on consumer spending, debt, and foreign investment, finding evidence that age demographics are a strong determinant of aggregate household consumption.

A discussion of the price and quantity effects on the U.S. consumer of the Japanese auto industry's voluntary export restraint program.

A discussion of the movement of Japanese auto production facilities to the United States, with emphasis on conditions in the Fourth Federal Reserve District and on growth of the just-in-time inventory supply process.