We use Synthetic Control Methodology to estimate the output loss in Tunisia as a result of the "Arab Spring.” Our results suggest that the loss was 5.5 percent, 5.1 percent, and 6.4 percent of GDP in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. These findings are robust to a series of tests, including...

Purpose – Penn World Tables (PWT) data on output measured at international prices are the data most frequently used in cross-country growth regressions. These data are subject to revision, and the amendments can be substantial for a minority of countries, although negligible for most. The...

Weak economic statistics in Lebanon impede economic analysis and decision making. This paper presents a new coincident indicator and a leading indicator for the Lebanese economy. A new methodology, based on the National Bureau of Economic Research-Conference Board approach, was used to construct...

The paper updates the analysis of the fiscal policy response over the recent commodity cycle, contributes to the analysis of key drivers of fiscal policy procyclicality, and provides a stock-tacking of current fiscal vulnerabilities. Countercyclical fiscal policy during good times has been a key...

As the Chinese Communist Party has loosened its grip in a more market-oriented economy, why have membership and the economic benefits of joining risen? We use three national household surveys over 11 years to answer this question for wages in urban China. Individual demand for Party membership...

This paper uses data on anthropometric status and reported illness in Uganda to estimate the socio-economic determinants of children's health. After controlling for endogeneity, we find higher household income greatly raises child health. Parental education also improves the health of...

How rapidly will child malnutrition respond to income growth? This article explores that question using household survey data from 12 countries as well as data on malnutrition rates in a cross-section of countries since the 1970s. Both forms of analysis yield similar results. Increases in income...