We investigate the optimal policy response to the possibility of abrupt, irreversible shifts in system dynamics. The welfare cost of a tipping point emerges from the policymaker's response to altered system dynamics. Our policymaker also learns about a threshold's location by observing the...

An increasingly common type of environmental policy instrument limits the carbon intensity of transportation and electricity markets. In order to extend the policy's scope beyond point-of-use emissions, regulators assign each competing fuel an emission intensity rating for use in calculating...

The benefits and costs of increasing solar electricity generation depend on the scale of the increase and on the time frame over which it occurs. Short-run analyses focus on the cost-effectiveness of incremental increases in solar capacity, holding the rest of the power system fixed. Solar’s...

We introduce a version of the DICE-2007 model designed for uncertaintyanalysis. DICE is a wide-spread deterministic integrated assessment model of climatechange. Climate change, long-term economic development, and their interactionsare highly uncertain. The quantitative analysis of optimal...

Uncertainty has an almost negligible impact on project value in the standard economic model. I show that a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty and uncertainty attitude changes this picture fundamentally. The illustration of this result relies on the discount rate, which is the crucial...

We introduce a version of the DICE-2007 model designed for uncertainty analysis. DICE is a wide-spread deterministic integrated assessment model of climate change. Climate change, long-term economic development, and their interactions are highly uncertain. The quantitative analysis of optimal...

The paper develops an axiomatic framework for rational decision making. The von Neumann-Morgenstern axioms give rise to a richer risk attitude than that captured in the standard discounted expected utility model. I derive three models that permit a more comprehensive risk evaluation. These...

Global warming, alterations of ecosystems, and sunk investmentsall imply irreversible changes with uncertain future costs and benefits. Twoconcepts measure how this combination of uncertainty and irreversibilitychanges the value of preserving an ecosystem or postponing an investment.First, the...

We introduce a version of the DICE-2007 model designed for uncertaintyanalysis. DICE is a wide-spread deterministic integrated assessment model of climatechange. However, climate change, long-term economic development, and theirinteractions are highly uncertain. A thorough empirical analysis of...