Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that...

This paper tests the ability of popular New Keynesian models, which are traditionally used to study monetary policy and business cycles, to match the data regarding a key channel for monetary transmission: the dynamic interactions between macroeconomic variables and their corresponding...

No, they are not; at least not in the UK. By examining GDP dynamics we find that, over a time-span of two decades, an easy-to-perform adaptive expectations model systematically outperforms other standard predictors in terms of squared forecasting errors. This should reduce model uncertainty and...

This paper develops the notion of a Large Type Limit (LTL) describing the average behavior of adaptive evolutionary systems with many trader types. It is shown that generic and persistent features of adaptive evolutionary systems with many trader types are well described by the large type limit....

We analyze the classical asset pricing model assuming non fully rational agents. Agents forecast future prices cum dividend through an adaptive learning rule. This assumption provides an explanation of some anomalies encountered in the empirical analysis of asset prices under full rationality:...