ABSTRACT We examine the links between end‐user order flows as seen by a major European commercial bank and macroeconomic fundamentals. We show that both exchange rate changes and flows are only weakly related to macroeconomic news announcements and hypothesize that ‘the cat is already out of...

In this paper, we argue that the bank-led rescues of financially distressed firms in the heyday of the main bank system was inefficient since banks' implicit guarantee against bankruptcy resulted in moral hazard. The empirical results show that during the period before the financial deregulation...

The informational efficiency of the yen/dollar exchange rate is investigated in five market segments within each business day from 1987 to 2007. Among the results, we first find that the daily exchange rate has a cointegrating relationship with the cumulative price change of the segment for...

In this paper, we estimate structural VAR models with contemporaneous restrictions based on neo-classical and Keynesian theories to investigate whether the cause of current account surpluses for East Asian economies is a "saving glut" or undervalued currencies. Analytical results show that the...

In this paper, we estimate structural VAR models with contemporaneous restrictions based on neo-classical and Keynesian theories to investigate whether the cause of current account surpluses for East Asian economies is a gsaving gluth or undervalued currencies. Analytical results show that the...

This paper studies the relationship between official announcements and the effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions in a noisy rational expectations equilibrium model. We show that when heterogeneously informed traders have inaccurate information, an exchange rate is likely to be...

We exploit dynamic correlations to estimate determinants of output comovement between OECD countries. Trade intensity, financial integration, and specialization patterns have significantly different effects on comovements at different frequencies. This sheds more light on previous results based...

This paper explores the impacts of exchange rate on trade between Japan and China, with special attention to differences of pricing structure of international trade across industries. Although the Chinese yuan was fixed against the U.S. dollar for several years, it has been fluctuating against...