This paper uses a number of identification approaches (using instrumental variables, assumptions about heteroscedasticity and panel fixed effects) to estimate the effect of inflation targeting on inflation. Generally, it finds the effect is small and insignificant.

A number of countries have adopted the policy of inflation targeting and a substantial literature exists on the virtues of inflation targeting in reducing inflation (Bernanke <italic>et al</italic>., 1999). However, results in the existing empirical literature conflict. This article uses a number of...

With China's share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002-2003 that China was exporting deflation to other countries as it was dumping cheap goods in mature markets. Later, others argued that China was causing sharp increases in global prices. This paper uses several econometric...

The modified harmonic mean is widely used for estimating the marginal likelihood. We investigate the empirical performance of two versions of this estimator: one based on the observed-data likelihood and the other on the complete-data likelihood. Through an empirical example using US and UK...

The deviance information criterion (DIC) has been widely used for Bayesian model comparison. However, recent studies have cautioned against the use of the DIC for comparing latent variable models. In particular, the DIC calculated using the conditional likelihood (obtained by conditioning on the...

The deviance information criterion (DIC) has been widely used for Bayesian model comparison. In particular, a popular metric for comparing stochastic volatility models is the DIC based on the conditional likelihood—obtained by conditioning on the latent variables. However, some recent studies...

This paper develops an empirical model of the cross-country variation in bilateral output growth correlations for 17 OECD countries. Consideration is given to the role played by explicit mechanisms for transmitting shocks between countries, such as trade in goods and financial assets and the...

In this article, past forecast errors are used to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the...