In the large empirical literature that investigates the causal effects of education on outcomes such as health, wages and crime, it is customary to measure education with years of schooling, and to identify these effects using the exogenous variation provided by school reforms increasing...

This paper estimates the impact of adolescent attitudes and behaviors - academic motivation as assessed by the child herself and behavioral problems as assessed by the mother or the teacher of the child at age 16 - on adult attitudes and behaviors including illegal drugs consumption, smoking,...

Üblicherweise werden Unsicherheiten bei Bevölkerungsprognosen mit Hilfe der Szenarientechnik abgebildet. Unter Annahme von begründeten Szenarienparametern, die eine gewisse Bandbreite von zukünftig zu erwartenden demographischen Raten (Geburten- und Sterberaten, Nettomigration) abdecken,...

We propose a framework for estimating network-driven time-varying systemic risk contributions that is applicable to a high-dimensional financial system. Tail risk dependencies and contributions are estimated based on a penalized two-stage fixed-effects quantile approach, which explicitly links...

The paper develops an early-warning model for predicting vulnerabilities leading to distress in European banks using both bank and country-level data. As outright bank failures have been rare in Europe, the paper introduces a novel dataset that complements bankruptcies and defaults with state...

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some...

Üblicherweise werden Unsicherheiten bei Bevölkerungsprognosen mit Hilfe der Szenarientechnik abgebildet. Unter Annahme von begründeten Szenarienparametern, die eine gewisse Bandbreite von zukünftig zu erwartenden demographischen Raten (Geburten- und Sterberaten, Nettomigration) abdecken,...

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some...

We investigate the effect of Reformed Protestantism, relative to Catholicism, on preferences for leisure, and for redistribution and intervention in the economy. We use a Fuzzy Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design to exploit a historical quasi-experiment in Western Switzerland, where in the...

We investigate the effect of Reformed Protestantism, relative to Catholicism, on preferences for leisure, and for redistribution and intervention in the economy. We use a Fuzzy Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design to exploit a historical quasi-experiment in Western Switzerland, where in the...