This paper formally incorporates parameter uncertainty and model error into the estimation of contingent claim models and the formulation of forecasts. This allows inference on functions of interest (option values, bias functions, hedge ratios) consistent with uncertainty in both parameters and...

This paper provides a Markov Model for the term structure of credit risk spreads. The model is based on Jarrow and Turnbull (1995) with the bankruptcy process following a discrete state space Markov chain in credit ratings. The parameters of this process are easily estimated using observable...

This paper provides a Markov model for the term structure of credit risk spreads. The model is based on Jarrow and Turnbull (1995) with the bankruptcy process following a discrete state space Markov chain in credit ratings. The parameters of this process are easily estimated using observable...

Although relatively obscure, the market for distressed real estate tax liens exists in over 30 U.S. states, with a market size estimated to be around 20 billion dollars. While this niche asset class is relatively unknown to academics, internet advertising hypes tax liens to the populace as...

Motivated by recent financial crises in East Asia and the U.S. where the downfall of a small number of firms had an economy-wide impact, this paper generalizes existing reduced-form models to include default intensities dependent on the default of a counterparty. In this model, firms have...

Taking the term structure of Treasury securities and Eurodollar rates as exogenous, this paper provides an integrated approach to the pricing and hedging of LIBOR derivatives. Our approach allows the spread between Eurodollar and Treasury rates to reflect both the credit risk in holding...

This paper provides a new methodology for pricing and hedging derivative securities involving credit risk. Two types of credit risks are considered. The first is where the asset underlying the derivative security may default. The second is where the writer of the derivative security may default....

The Black-Scholes formula is the quot;industry standardquot; for pricing options on a variety of instruments. This paper shows that even when markets are incomplete, the Black- Scholes option pricing formula can arise in an equilibrium merely from self-fulfilling beliefs that it is the correct...

This paper studies a new theory for pricing options in a large trader economy. This theory necessitates studying the impact that derivative security markets have on market manipulation. In an economy with a stock, money market account, and a derivative security, it is shown, by example, that the...

Recent advances in the theory of credit risk allow the use of standard term structure machinery for default risk modeling and estimation. The empirical literature in this area often interprets the drift adjustments of the default intensity's diffusion state variables as the only default risk...