We estimate nonlinear VARs to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are countercyclical in the United States. We deal with the issue of non-fundamentalness due to fiscal foresight by appealing to sums of revisions of expectations of fiscal expenditures. This measure of anticipated...

We investigate the effects of a US economic policy uncertainty shock on some Euro area macroeconomic aggregates with a number of Structural VARs. We model the indicators of economic policy uncertainty recently developed by Baker, Bloom and Davis (2013) jointly with a set of standard indicators...

We estimate nonlinear VARs to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are countercyclical in the United States. We deal with the issue of nonfundamentalness due to fiscal foresight by appealing to sums of revisions of expectations of fiscal expenditures. This measure of anticipated...

We investigate the effects of a US economic policy uncertainty shock on some Euro area macroeconomic aggregates via Structural VARs. We model the indicators of economic policy uncertainty recently developed by  Baker et al. (2013) jointly with the aggregate price indexes and alternative...

Inflation forecasts are a key ingredient for monetary policy-making - especially in an inflation targeting country such as South Africa. Generally, a typical Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) only includes a core set of variables. As such, other variables, for example alternative...

In ation forecasts are a key ingredient for monetary policymaking - especially in an in ation targeting country such as South Africa. Generally, a typical Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) only includes a core set of variables. As such, other variables,e.g. such as alternative...

This paper examines the forecasting performance of DSGE models with and without banking intermediation for the US economy. Over the forecast period 2001-2013, the model augmented with a banking sector leads to an improvement of point and density forecasts for inflation and the short term...

Information on economic policy uncertainty (EPU) does matter in predicting oil returns especially when accounting for omitted nonlinearities in the relationship between these two variables via a time-varying coe¢ cient approach. In this work, we compare the forecastability of standard, Bayesian...

Micro-founded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models appear to be particularly suited for evaluating the consequences of alternative macroeconomic policies. Recently, increasing efforts have been undertaken by policymakers to use these models for forecasting, although this proved...