This paper examines how and to what extent parameter estimates can be biased in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that omits the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our Monte Carlo experiments using a standard sticky-price DSGE model show that no...

Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation, which conversely implies that forecastability was higher in the preceding era when the economy was unexpectedly volatile. We explain this phenomenon in the context of equilibrium...

Recent studies attempt to quantify the empirical importance of news shocks (ie., anticipated future schocks) in business cycle fluctuations. This paper identifies news schocks in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model estimated with not only actual data but also forecast data. The...

Benhabib, Schmitt-Grohe, and Uribe (2001) argue for the existence of a deflation steady state when the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate is considered in a Taylor-type monetary policy rule. This paper estimates a medium-scale DSGE model with a deflation steady state for the Japanese...

We estimate a two-country open economy version of the New Keynesian DSGE model for the U.S. and the Euro area, using Bayesian techniques that allow for both determinacy and indeterminacy of the equilibrium. Our empirical analysis shows that the worldwide equilibrium is indeterminate due to a...

To what extent did the Bank of Japan's liquidity facilities for corporate financing reduce commercial paper (CP) issue-rates in Japan? To answer this question, we propose a simple structural model that illustrates the market for the CP operations and their effects on the CP primary market. Based...

To what extent did the Bank of Japan's liquidity provisions reduce the premium on money market rates over the year-ends in Japan? To answer this question, we propose a simple structural model that illustrates the year-end operations and the year-end interbank money markets. Based on the...

This paper structurally investigates the changes in the Federal Reserve's communication strategy during the 1990s by analyzing anticipated and unanticipated disturbances to a Taylor rule. The anticipated monetary policy disturbances are identified by estimating a medium-scale dynamic stochastic...

We estimate the output gap that is consistent with a fully specified DSGE model. Given the structural parameters estimated using Bayesian methods, we estimate the output gap that is defined as a deviation of output from its flexible-price equilibrium. Our output gap illustrates the U.S. business...

The premium on interbank money market rates arises over year-end periods as a result of the Japanese business practice of periodic settlement. This paper examines to what extent the Bank of Japan’s liquidity provision reduced the year-end premium in Japan. We find that the funds-supplying...