We develop a class of Poisson autoregressive models with additional covariates (PARX) that can be used to model and forecast time series of counts. We establish the time series properties of the models, including conditions for stationarity and existence of moments. These results are in turn...

Structural models have been developed and used in financial literature to assess the probability of default of corporations. This article aims at reversing this approach, using this probability as an input and investigating if the default barrier can be considered flat, as done in similar...

Stochastic dividend discount models (Hurley and Johnson, 1994 and 1998, Yao, 1997) present expressions for the expected value of stock prices when future dividends evolve according to some random scheme. In this paper we try to offer a more precise view on this issue proposing a closed-form...

One of the main problems in operational risk management is the lack of loss data, which affects the parameter estimates of the marginal distributions of the losses. The principal reason is that financial institutions only started to collect operational loss data a few years ago, due to the...

The major implementational problem for reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is that there is commonly no natural way to choose jump proposals since there is no Euclidean structure in the parameter space to guide our choice. We consider mechanisms for guiding the choice of proposal....

According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways.

The purpose of this research is to introduce a new approach to the decomposition of the Gini measure in terms of concordance and discordance shares: a new kind of dependence, the Gini rank dependence (GRD), and its formal definition are provided.