This paper investigates the relationship between manufacturing profits and the real exchange rate. Using Marston's (1990) model of pricing-to-market, we identify two channels, a valuation channel and volume channel, through which changes in the real exchange rate can shift the profits of a...

This paper uses a two-good version of the rational expectations permanent income model to derive a structural import demand equation for non-durable consumer goods. Under the identification restriction that taste shocks are stationary, the model is shown to imply that log imports, log domestic...

This paper revisits one of the oldest questions in international finance: does the forward exchange rate contain useful information about of the future path of the spot exchange rate? We present a theoretical framework and provide evidence that challenges the common view (Mussa (1979); Dornbusch...

This paper investigates empirically and attempts to identify the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations since the collapse of Bretton Woods. The paper's first two sections survey and extend earlier, non-structural empirical work on this subject by Campbell and Clarida (1987), Meese and...

We suggest a method of decomposing univariate and multivariate nonlinear processes into their permanent and temporary components, extending the analysis of Beveridge and Nelson (1981) and Stock and Watson (1987). We provide applications in the univariate nonlinear case to recent work on...