This study shows how the standard portfolio model of futures trading should be modified when there is less than perfect information about the relevant parameters (estimation risk). The standard and the optimal decision rules for futures trading in the presence of estimation risk are compared and...

This paper uses dynamic simulation analysis to consider the likely consequences of the 1988 Japanese Beef Market Access Agreement (BMAA) on the Japanese livestock industry and beef imports. Using a simultaneous equations, econometric model of Japanese livestock markets, a forecast baseline up to...

Testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission on April 25, 2013, by Dermot Hayes, professor of Economics and Finance, Iowa State University. Testimony covers impacts on food demand from China's rising incomes and urbanization; the viability of China's attempt to remain...

We update the findings of the impact of ethanol production on U.S. and regional gasoline markets as reported previously in Du and Hayes (2009 and 2011), by extending the data to December 2011. The results indicate that over the period of January 2000 to December 2011, the growth in ethanol...

Testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission on April 25, 2013, by Dermot Hayes, professor of Economics and Finance, Iowa State University. Testimony covers impacts on food demand from China's rising incomes and urbanization; the viability of China's attempt to remain...

We update the findings of the impact of ethanol production on U.S. and regional gasoline markets as reported previously in Du and Hayes (2009 and 2011), by extending the data to December 2011. The results indicate that over the period of January 2000 to December 2011, the growth in ethanol...

Knittel and Smith present seven alternative versions of our model all of which apparently show a lower impact of ethanol production on gasoline prices. Four of these models are based on the flawed assumption that one can use the change in refiner's margin and the change in gasoline prices...