This paper examines the performance of alternative models for predicting turning points in the UK growth cycle. The models are based upon an interpretation of movements in the CSO's composite longer and shorter leading indicators. The difference between the models lies in the choice of method...

There has been a large decline in the volatility of Australian output over the past 40 years. This paper looks at the causes of this decline. Accounting for part of the change have been substantial changes in the inventories cycle. Abstracting from changes in the inventories cycle there have...

In 2014, the German economy is expected to grow by 1.8 %. Next year, GDP will increase by 2.1 %. The output gap will decline significantly this year, but will only be fully closed in the coming year. Inflation will remain low in this environment. The upward momentum of the global economy...

The German economy is bound to accelerate in the quarters ahead, following the slump at the end of last year. Year-on-year, real gross domestic product will increase by 0.7 percent, matching last year's rise. As production will gain momentum in the course of 2013, the growth rate for 2014 will...

The German economy has recently lost momentum but is anticipated to accelerate markedly in the course of 2013. On annual average, real GDP will increase by 0.9 percent; the corresponding figure for 2012 is expected to be 0.8 percent. During the course of 2013, however, expansion will accelerate...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft steht vor einem kräftigen Aufschwung. Zwar kann der Zuwachs im Jahresdurchschnitt 2012 mit 1,0 Prozent nicht an die hohen Raten der vergangenen beiden Jahre anknüpfen. Dies liegt jedoch daran, dass sich Investoren und Konsumenten aufgrund der Krise im Euroraum mit ihren...

In the projection period, the German economy will grow at a considerably slower pace than in the previous years. After a three per cent increase in 2011, German GDP will rise by only one per cent in this year and by close to two per cent next year. It is primarily domestic demand that drives...

In 2013 the German economy will grow at 0.4 percent which is below the growth rate of potential output. The output gap is 0.5 percent. In 2014 gross domestic product will expand at 1,6 percent and the output gap will nearly be closed. In 2015 the economy will grow above trend at a rate of 2...

In spring 2014, the German economy is experiencing an upturn. Gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to increase by 1.9 percent this year, the 68-percent forecast interval ranges from 1.2 percent to 2.6 percent. The driving force is domestic demand. The rise in consumer prices this year is...

Due to a weak winter half-year, the German economy will only grow by 0.4 percent in 2013. However, the economic slowdown seems to be coming to an end now; growth in 2014 is expected to be above average at 1.8 percent. The global economy is experiencing an upswing again; growth in many emerging...