A forward default prediction method based on the discrete-time competing risk hazard model (DCRHM) is proposed. The proposed model is developed from the discrete-time hazard model (DHM) by replacing the binary response data in DHM with the multinomial response data, and thus allowing the firms...

The dynamic logit model (DLM) with autocorrelation structure (Liang and Zeger Biometrika 73:13–22, <CitationRef CitationID="CR26">1986</CitationRef>) is proposed as a model for predicting recurrent financial distresses. This model has been applied in many examples to analyze repeated binary data due to its simplicity in computation and...</citationref>

The dynamic ordered probit model (DOPM) with autocorrelation structure is proposed as a model for credit risk forecasting. It is more appropriate than the DOPM with independence structure, because correlations among repeated credit ratings have been observed by Altman and Kao [<italic>J. Financ. Anal</italic>.,...

The dynamic ordered varying-coefficient probit model (DOVPM) is proposed as a model for studying credit ratings. It is constructed by replacing the constant coefficients of firm-specific predictors in the dynamic ordered probit model (DOPM) of Blume, Lim and MacKinlay (1998) with the smooth...

Bankruptcy prediction methods based on a semiparametric logit model are proposed for simple random (prospective) and case-control (choice-based; retrospective) data. The unknown parameters and prediction probabilities in the model are estimated by the local likelihood approach, and the resulting...

This paper proposes a prediction method based on an ordered semiparametric probit model for credit risk forecast. The proposed prediction model is constructed by replacing the linear regression function in the usual ordered probit model with a semiparametric function, thus it allows for more...

In this paper, a default prediction method based on the discrete-time varying-coefficient hazard model (DVHM) is proposed. The new model is constructed by replacing the constant coefficients of firm-specific predictors in the discrete-time hazard model (DHM; see Shumway, 2001; and Chava & Jarrow,...

The usual bankruptcy prediction models are based on single-period data from firms. These models ignore the fact that the characteristics of firms change through time, and thus they may suffer from a loss of predictive power. In recent years, a discrete-time parametric hazard model has been...