According to the conventional wisdom, when an economy enters a recession and nominal prices adjust slowly, the monetary authority should devalue the domestic currency to make the recession less severe. The reason is that a devaluation of the currency lowers the relative price of non-tradable...

We analyze optimal policy in a simple small open economy model with price setting frictions. In particular, we study the optimal response of the nominal exchange rate following a terms of trade shock. We depart from the New Keynesian literature in that we explicitly model internationally traded...

In the aftermath of its long-standing civil war, Sri Lanka is keen to reap the social and economic benefits of peace. Even in the middle of civil conflict, the country was able to grow at rates that surpassed those of its neighbors and most developing countries. It is argued, then, that the...

This paper examines the extent of international consumption risk sharing for a group of 50 industrial and developing countries. The analysis is based on the empirical implementation of a model of partial consumption insurance whose parameters have the natural interpretation of coefficients of...

We estimate versions of the Nelson-Siegel model of the yield curve of U.S. government bonds using a Markov switching latent variable model that allows for discrete changes in the stochastic process followed by the interest rates. Our modelling approach is motivated by evidence suggesting the...

In this paper we estimate the yield curve of U.S. government bonds using a Markov switching latent variable model. We show how measures such as the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve are a¤ected by business cycle conditions. We present a switching latent model which not only seem to...

Aggregate fluctuations in emerging countries are different from those in developed countries. Using data from Mexico and Canada, this paper decomposes these differences in terms of reduced form shocks that affect aggregate efficiency and distort the decisions of households about how much to...

This study illustrates the mechanisms linking national saving and economic growth, with the purpose of understanding the possibilities and limits of a saving-based growth agenda in the context of the Egyptian economy. This is done through a simple theoretical model, calibrated to fit the...

This paper studies the cycles of nationalization and privatization in resource-rich economies as a prime instance of unstable institutional reform. The authors discuss the available evidence on the drivers and consequences of privatization and nationalization, review the existing literature, and...

Aggregate fluctuations in emerging countries are quantitatively larger and qualitatively different in key respects from those in developed countries. Using data from Mexico and Canada, this paper decomposes these differences in terms of shocks to aggregate efficiency and shocks that distort the...