The paper proposes that the spot exchange rate consist of two parts. Important information content is with its underlying movement, in accordance with the development in the economy and the adjustment in economic activity. The paper then extracts the underlying movement from the spot exchange...

This paper applies the present value model to investigate property market efficiency in the UK. The existence of quot;rational bubblesquot; in UK property market is ruled out at conventional statistical significance levels, though UK property market appears not efficient. In addition, there are...

This paper demonstrates that the estimated parameters in previous research, with wrong signs and wrong sizes, do not indicate market inefficiency and market behaviour as they appear to. In the real world where forecasting errors are substantially large, a correct or an unreasonable estimate of...

This study examines cycles and common cycles in property and related sectors in the frequency domain. The findings indicate that property shares common cycles with a number of economic sectors and, in particular, with those sectors that are the user markets of property, and lags behind in...

The Ångström-Prescott (A-P) model, a highly rated model, has been widely used to estimate global solar radiation (H) at daily or monthly scales in different locations around the world. However, few studies focused on the interchangeability of the A-P coefficients at different time scales,...

In this paper the inflation hedging characteristics of Hong Kong real estate market are examined using 1998-2006 data. Both short-term and long-term methods are used. The short-term method follows Fama and Schwert framework. To separate expected and unexpected inflation rate from nominal...

This thesis examines causal inference related topics involving intermediate variables, and uses Bayesian methodologies to advance analysis capabilities in these areas. First, joint modeling of outcome variables with intermediate variables is considered in the context of birthweight and censored...

Hydrological changes of the Irtysh River were analyzed concerning the changes of annual runoff and its distribution features within a year measured by coefficient of variation and concentration degree. Abrupt changes were detected by the heuristic segmentation method. Possible causes of the...