Copulas offer financial risk managers a powerful tool to model the dependence between the different elements of a portfolio and are preferable to the traditional, correlation-based approach. In this paper, we show the importance of selecting an accurate copula for risk management. We extend...

Systemic crises can largely affect asset allocations due to the rapid deterioration of the risk-return trade-off. We investigate the effects of systemic crises, interpreted as global simultaneous shocks to financial markets, by introducing an investor adopting a crisis ignorant or crisis...

In this study we propose the use of the Student's t dependence function to model dependence between asset returns when conducting stress tests. To properly include stress testing in a risk management system, it is important to have accurate information about the (joint) probabilities of extreme...

Systemic crises can have grave consequences for investors in international equity markets, because it causes the risk-return trade-off to deteriorate severely for a longer period. In this paper we propose a novel approach to include the possibility of systemic crises in asset allocation...

Systemic crises can have grave consequences for investors in international equity markets, because they cause the risk-return trade-off to deteriorate severely for a longer period. We propose a novel approach to include the possibility of systemic crises in asset allocation decisions. By...

Several frequentist and Bayesian model averaging schemes, including a new one that simultaneously allows for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy over a set of simulation experiments. Artificial data are generated,...

A wide range of empirical biases hampers hedge fund databases. In this paper we focus upon survival-related biases and disentangle look-ahead biases due to self-selection of funds and due to fund termination. Self-selection arises because funds voluntarily report their information to data...

In this paper, we analyze the economic value of predicting index returns as well as volatility. On the basis of fairly simple linear models, estimated recursively, we produce genuine out-of-sample forecasts for the return on the Samp;P 500 index and its volatility. Using monthly data from 1954...

Believers in the law of small numbers tend to overinfer the outcome of a random process after a small series of observations. They believe that small samples replicate the probability distribution properties of the population. We provide empirical evidence indicating that investors are...

We explore the flow-performance interrelation of hedge funds by separating the investment and divestment decisions of investors using a regime switching model. We report three previously undocumented features in hedge fund data. First, we find a weak inflow-performance relation at quarterly...