This paper takes a somewhat different approach from the recent literature in estimating exchange rate equations. It assumes uncovered interest rate parity and models how expectations are formed. Agents are assumed to base their expectations of future interest rates and prices, which are needed...

Ragnar Frisch proposed in 1936 a procedure for estimating natural variable values by modifying what are now called structural macroeconometric models. This paper shows that Frisch's procedure can be used to illuminate natural concepts using today's models. The procedure also forces one to be...

The paper analyzes the question why the U.S. economy in the 2000:4-2004:3 period was sluggish in light of the large expansionary fiscal and monetary policies that took place. The answer does not appear to be that there were large structural changes in the economy or systematic bad shocks. This...

A method is proposed in this paper for predicting Electoral College victory probabilities from state probability data. A ranking assumption about dependencies across states is made that greatly simplifies the analysis. The method is used to analyze state probability data from the Intrade...

Three vote-share equations are estimated and analyzed in this paper, one for presidential elections, one for on-term House elections, and one for mid-term House elections. The sample period is 1916-2006. Considering the three equations together allows one to test whether the same economic...

This paper examines the performances of the past five Federal Reserve chairmen using optimal control techniques and a macroeconometric model. Each chairman is evaluated in two ways. The first way is comparing the actual performance of the economy under his term relative to what the performance...

This paper uses a structurally estimated macroeconometric model, denoted the MC model, to evaluate inflation targeting in the United States. Various interest rate rules are tried with differing weights on inflation and output, and various optimal control problems are solved using differing...

This paper examines how much structural change there was in the U.S. economy in the last half of the 1990s. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that there was only one major structural change, namely the huge increase in stock prices relative to earnings. All other large changes can...

This paper uses data on companies that have been in the Samp;P 500 index since 1957 to examine whether risk aversion has decreased since 1995. The evidence suggests that it has not. There is no evidence that more risky companies have had larger increases in their price-earnings ratios since 1995...