We explore the dynamics of real house prices by estimating serial correlation and mean reversion coefficients from a panel data set of 62 metro areas from 1979-1995. The serial correlation and reversion parameters are then shown to vary cross sectionally with city size, real income growth,...

This paper studies expectations of capital appreciation in the housing market. We show that expectations impounded in rent-to-price ratio at the beginning of the decade successfully predict appreciation rates, but only if we first control for fluctuations within a transactions and information...

This study investigates why externally advised Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) underperform their internally managed counterparts. Consistent with previous studies, we find that REITs managed by external advisors underperform internally managed ones by over 7% per year. Property-level cash...

This research examines the implications of contingent claims models for empirical research on default. We focus on the probability of default over a short horizon given the current state of the world, i.e., the conditional probability of default, which more closely resembles the estimates of...

We investigate relations among inside ownership, managerial expenses, risk sharing and equity valuations. Our engine of analysis - Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - provides a unique and rich framework for analysis since we can calculate extremely accurate measures of asset replacement...

This study investigates why externally advised Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) underperform their internally managed counterparts. Consistent with previous studies, we find that REITs managed by external advisors underperform internally managed ones by over 7% per year. Property-level cash...

Drawing from a large mortgage loan database and an extensive panel data set on metropolitan areas, this study refines the contingent claims model of default. Recent research has treated default as optimal exercise of a put option and has emphasized loan to value ratios, loan age and interest...

This research analyzes the dynamic properties of the difference equation that arises when markets exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. We identify the correlation and reversion parameters for which prices will overshoot equilibrium (quot;cyclesquot;) and/or diverge permanently from...