encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …

series on the Estonian economy. In order to improve forecasting of economic activity in Estonia, we derive a leading …

This paper reviews the main monthly indicators that could help forecasting world trade and compares different type of … forecasting models using these indicators. In particular it develops dynamic factor models (DFM) which have the advantage of … and information technology indices. The comparison of the forecasting performance of the DFMs with more traditional bridge …

that (a) regardless of the forecasting methods considered, PMIs are useful for nowcasting, but their value added diminishes …This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence … Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for forecasting global (48 countries) growth, and compare forecasts from AugGVAR models with a …

Forecasting future inflation and nowcasting contemporaneous inflation are difficult. We propose a new and parsimonious … model for nowcasting headline and core inflation in the U.S. price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the …’s nowcasting accuracy improves as information accumulates over the course of a month or quarter, and it easily outperforms a …

This paper proposes a new approach for nowcasting as yet unavailable GDP growth by estimating monthly GDP growth with a … more precise estimates of recent GDP growth at an earlier stage of nowcasting than the nowcasts of professional forecasters. …

-on-quarter growth rate in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the … for GDP forecasting, although their ranking depends on the underlying transformation of monthly indicators from which the …

This paper documents GDPNow, a "nowcasting" model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the "bridge …