Total factor productivity growth was stagnant or slowing in many advanced countries even prior to the crisis. This paper documents sector-level productivity patterns across advanced economies prior to the crisis and examines the role of product and labor market rigidities as well as innovation...

This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number...

type="main" <p>Using a wide range of macroeconomic and econometric models we assess the long-term economic impact of the Basel III reform. Our main results are the following. (1) The economic costs of the new regulatory standards for bank capital and liquidity are considerably below existing...</p>

The model of German hyperinflation is presented in this paper, which struck Germany after the first world's war. The simple monetary model, which goes from Cagan's demand function for money and describes equilibrium on money market, is used. The purpose of the paper is analysis and estimation of...

The Iterative Kalman filter Smoother (IKFS) is the method for estimation of initial states and parameters of models in the state space form. This estimation procedure is described in the paper along with its basic properties. Its main advantage stems from the fact that it only consists of...

Original versions of the included papers were written by an extensive team of authors for the meeting of the Bank Board with experts. The aim of this meeting was to assess the ten-year experience with inflation targeting and to contribute to its improvements in the forthcoming years. Following...

Many central banks in low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are modernising their monetary policy frameworks. Standard statistical procedures have had limited success in identifying the channels of monetary transmission in such countries. Here we take a narrative approach, following Romer...

We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international...

We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an application to Kenya. We provide a general specification that can nest various types of money...

The paper is aimed at the evaluation of quality and the success-rate of the past Czech National Bank’s forecasts created from 2004 until mid-2006. It strives to identify the factors which have caused deviations from reality in the past forecasts and could contribute to non-fulfilment of...