This chapter builds on previous work by Bhardwaj and Swanson (2004) who address the notion that many fractional I(d) processes may fall into the iquest;empty boxiquest; category, as discussed in Granger (1999). However, rather than focusing primarily on linear models, as do Bhardwaj and Swanson,...

We show that using data which are properly available in real time when assessing the sensitivity of asset prices to economic news leads to different empirical findings than when data availability and timing issues are ignored. We do this by focusing on a particular example, namely Chen, Roll and...

In this paper we characterize what has sometimes been referred to in the literature as instantaneous causality, by examining the consequences of temporal aggregation in (possibly) Granger causal systems of variables. Our approach is to compare the concept of contemporaneous correlation due to...

We provide analytical formulae for the asymptotic bias (ABIAS) and mean squared error (AMSE) of the IV estimator, and obtain approximations thereof based on an asymptotic scheme which essentially requires the expectation of the first stage F-statistic to converge to a finite (possibly small)...

This paper conducts a general analysis of the conditions under which consistent estimation can be achieved in instrumental variables regression when the available instruments are weak in the local-to-zero sense. More precisely, the approach adopted in this paper combines key features of the...

Many recent modelling advances in finance topics ranging from the pricing of volatility-based derivative products to asset management are predicated on the importance of jumps, or discontinuous movements in asset returns. In light of this, a number of recent papers have addressed volatility...

In this paper, we provide new evidence on the empirical usefulness of various simple seasonal models, and underscore the importance of carefully designing criteria by which one judges alternative models. In particular, we underscore the importance of both choice of forecast or simulation horizon...

If the intensity parameter in a jump diffusion model is identically zero, then parameters characterizing the jump size density cannot be identified. In general, this lack of identification precludes consistent estimation of identified parameters. Hence, it should be standard practice to...

First-reported monthly and quarterly time-series data on nine macroeconomic variables from 1960-1993 are given. Features of this so-called "unrevised" or "first-reported data" are discussed, and the data is compared with standard "fully revised" data using Granger causality tests. For the...