Evans (1991) has demonstrated that Blanchard`s (1985) finite-horizon model obeys approximate Ricardian equivalence. We show that this result is determined largely by an unrealistic assumption that labor income grows monotonically over a consumer`s entire lifetime. Introducing more realistic...

This paper examines the possible effects on Switzerland of asset preference shifts in favor of Swiss-franc-denominated assets that could result from EMU. Alternative policy responses to temporary and persistent asset preference shifts and the consequent pressures for exchange rate appreciation...

Using data on long-term interest rates for 17 industrial countries, this paper develops some simple measures of monetary policy credibility and then tests if such measures improve the out-of-sample forecasts of conventional models of the inflation-unemployment process. The results provide some...

This paper provides a quantitative exploration of international spillovers of macroeconomic shocks among the major industrial economies. The particular topical example analyzed here concerns the possible effects on the industrial economies of adverse shocks to the current U.S. economic...

The paper first describes how the Czech National Bank (CNB) moved gradually from a fixed exchange rate regime to the frontiers of Inflation-Forecast Targeting. It then focuses on the CNB’s recent experience in adding the exchange rate as a complementary monetary policy tool to stimulate...

We use a version of the Global Projection Model covering the United States, Euro area and Japan to assess options for dealing with the looming risk of international deflation. The zero floor to interest rates constrains monetary policy. Confidence intervals, derived from stochastic simulations,...

The paper evaluates the costs and benefits of fiscal consolidation using simulations based on the IMFs global DSGE model GIMF. Over the longer run, well-targeted permanent reductions in budget deficits lead to a considerable increase in both the growth rate and the level of output. The gains may...

The paper evaluates the costs and benefits of fiscal consolidation using simulations based on the IMFs global dynamic general equilibrium model GIMF. Over the longer run, well-targeted permanent reductions in budget deficits can lead to a considerable increase in both the growth rate and the...