The fallout of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has hit the economy more than the crises in 2008 and 2015. The pandemic is projected to shrink by 2.5 percent this year. The economy is expected to grow modesty by 2.5 percent next year, based on an improved global economic outlook. This report...

The Tunisia Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies. It examines these economic developments and policies in a longer-term and global context and assesses their implications for the outlook for the country. There are two special focus sections in this...

During the past decade, the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) evaluated the World Bank Group's response to systemic shocks and its efforts to help build resilience in response to shocks such as the food crisis of 2007-08, the global financial crisis of 2008-09, natural disasters, climate...

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted Chad's economic recovery, which started in 2018. GDP contracted by 0.9 percent in 2020. Agriculture and the oil sector remained the main drivers of growth, contributing 1.1 percentage points, while services contracted (contributing -2.0 percent)....

In this article, we show how to analyse analytically the equilibrium policies and prices in an economy with a stochastic investment opportunity set and incomplete financial markets, when agents have power utility over both intermediate consumption and terminal wealth, and face portfolio...

This paper proposes a dynamic risk-based model that captures the high expected returns on value stocks relative to growth stocks, and the failure of the capital asset pricing model to explain these expected returns. To model the difference between value and growth stocks, we introduce a...

Among the most important pieces of empirical evidence against the standard representative agent, consumption-based asset pricing paradigm are the formidable unconditional Euler equation errors the model produces for cross-sections of asset returns. Here we ask whether calibrated leading asset...

This paper derives a tax-adjusted discount rate formula with a constant proportion leverage policy, investor taxes, and risky debt. The result depends on an assumption about the treatment of tax losses in default. We identify the assumption that justifies the textbook approach of discounting...

The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...