A large body of the empirical literature shows that high turnover rates/length of tenure of policymakers and the degree of conflict within a country affects sovereign spreads, debt and default rates. We help to rationalize such claims by including these political features in a dynamic stochastic...

is characterized by countercyclical default risk. In this paper we develop a quantitative dynamic stochastic small open economy model with incomplete markets,endogenous fiscal policy and sovereign and private sector default where public expenditures and tax rates are optimally procyclical. The...

Emerging market economies typically exhibit a procyclical fiscal policy: public expenditures rise (fall) in economic expansions (recessions), whereas tax rates rise (fall) in bad (good) times. Additionally, the business cycle of these economies is characterized by countercyclical default risk....

Emerging market economies typically experience procyclical public expenditures and private consumption, countercyclical default risk, interest rate spreads, current account and inflation tax rates as well as and higher volatility in consumption than in output. We develop a quantitative...

We investigate the effect of relatively loose monetary policy on bank risk through a large panel including quarterly information from listed banks operating in the European Union and the United States. We find evidence that relatively low levels of interest rates over an extended period of time...

We find that the increased use of securitization activity in the banking sector augmented the effect of competition on realized bank risk during the 2007-2009 crisis. Our results suggest that securitization by itself does not lead to augmented risk while higher levels of capital do not buffer...

We exploit the 2007-2009 financial crisis to analyze how risk relates to bank business models. Institutions with higher risk exposure had less capital, larger size, greater reliance on short-term market funding, and aggressive credit growth. Business models related to significantly reduced bank...