In this paper we develop a comprehensive short-term fiscal forecasting system of use for the real-time monitoring of the Spanish government’s borrowing requirement. Spain has been at the centre of the recent European sovereign debt crisis, not least because of sizeable failures in meeting...

We provide key stylised facts on fiscal policy developments in Spain over the past three decades using quarterly data (1986Q1-2012Q2). First, we compute stylised facts on the cyclical properties of fiscal policies over that period. Next, we report updated evidence on the macroeconomic effects of...

Portugal’s fiscal policy has failed to durably reduce the deficit below the Stability and Growth Pact threshold of 3% of GDP and was submitted to the excessive deficit procedure of the EU Commission for a second time in 2005. The paper describes fiscal developments in Portugal over the past...

The recent reform of the Stability and Growth Pact provides more leeway for EU governments to temporarily breach the 3% deficit limit if this facilitates the implementation of initially expensive reforms. But the implementation of this principle is not obvious as budgets would need to specify...

Articulo resultado del proyecto de investigación Incidencia de los efectos jurídicos de la ley 550 de 1999 en los procesos ejecutivos adelantados contra el intervenido" investigación adelantada por los investigadores del Grupo Democracia y Modernización del Estado Colombiano, avalado por la...

This paper considers the case for and against 'the treasury view' - the idea that in a downturn, government spending has no effect on economic activity or unemployment. The report covers three areas: the evidence for expansionary fiscal contraction – the idea that somehow cutting budget...

Substantial fiscal consolidation was achieved under the aegis of the 2003 Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act. While deficits widened anew in 2008 and 2009, against the backdrop of the global financial and economic crisis, efforts to reduce them have resumed since. To ensure...

The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), or the $700 billion bailout, has been the subject of much academic interest. Here the rigorous studies on the programs of this massive intervention into the financial sector are reviewed. While considerable work has been done on the bank bailouts in the...

After entering the EU in 1986, Portugal benefited from low interest rates and some growth momentum. However, the difficulty in taming fiscal imbalances, the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy, the use of extraordinary fiscal measures, coupled with the 2008-2009 economic and financial crisis led to...

This paper discusses the development of public expenditure in the Netherlands since 1850. Why did public expenditure increase from 14% GDP in 1850, nearly 20% in 1921, 30% GDP in 1950 and over 60% GDP in 1983? Dutch public expenditure has fallen to less than 50% GDP in 2003. Why did this...