We examine the distribution of returns in new industries to determine whether stocks in new industries are similar to lottery tickets. We focus on one characteristic of lottery tickets: Negative expected returns. We examine data from the United States on sellers of own-brand personal computers,...

Are banks that fail in banking panics the riskiest ones prior to the panics? The free banking era in the United States provides useful data to examine this question because the assets held by the banks were traded at the New York Stock Exchange. The authors estimate the ex ante riskiness of a...

Arguably, eliminating suspensions of payments periods when banks jointly refuse to convert their liabilities into outside money or other assets was an important impetus for creating the Federal Reserve. Friedman and Schwartz suggest that a suspension in 1930 would have decreased the severity of...

Angel investors invest billions of dollars in thousands of entrepreneurial projects annually, far more than the number of firms that obtain venture capital. Previous research has calculated realized internal rates of return on angel investments, but empirical estimates of expected returns have...

We provide substantial evidence that the futures market for West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased the short-term volatility of the cash price of crude oil. We show that the variability of prices increased using both published posted prices and transaction prices for producers. This...

Research provides evidence that the method chosen to elicit value has an important effect on a person's valuation. We hypothesize that role has a crucial effect on decision makers' elicited values: Buyers prefer to pay less and sellers prefer to collect more. We conduct experimental sessions and...

We examine the returns to investors in publicly traded stock in new industries. We examine data from the United States on sellers of own-brand personal computers, airlines and airplane manufacturers, automobile manufacturers, railroads, and telegraphs. We find that a relatively small number of...

We survey the theories of why banks promise to pay par on demand and examine evidence about the conditions under which banks have promised to pay the par value of deposits and banknotes on demand when holding only fractional reserves. The theoretical literature can be broadly divided into four...

We examine the relationship between the number of bank relationships and firms' performance, evaluating possible differential effects related to firms' size. Our sample of firms from Italy includes many small firms, 99 percent of which are not listed and for which bank debt is a major source of...

We examine the connection between the creation of stock exchanges and economic growth with a new set of data on economic growth that spans a longer time period than generally available. We find that economic growth increases relative to the rest of the world after a stock exchange opens. Our...