We propose to forecast the Value-at-Risk of bivariate portfolios using copulas which are calibrated on the basis of nonparametric sample estimates of the coefficient of lower tail dependence. We compare our proposed method to a conventional copula-GARCH model where the parameter of a Clayton...

This article focuses on two questions: In what circumstances should a Copula- GARCH model be preferred to a correlation-based model? And, where appropriate, what Copula-model parameters should be used? In answer to these two questions, the empirical value at risk and expected shortfall study...

In this paper, we analyze the accuracy of the copula-GARCH and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) models for forecasting the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of bivariate portfolios. We then try to answer two questions: First, does the correlation-based DCC model outperform the...