In this paper, we study the size distortions of the KPSS test for stationarity when serial correlation is present and samples are small and medium-sized. It is argued that two distinct sources of the size distortions can be identified. The first source is the finite-sample distribution of the...

Case studies have claimed that private consumption growth is higher during fiscal contractions due to the very fact that government spending is cut. Indeed, neoclassical theory has this implication. This paper uses regression analysis of a panel of 19 OECD countries and shows that this is not...

In this paper, we investigate the effects of cross-sectional disturbance correlation in a homogenous panel-data unit root test. As reported by other authors, the unit root test has incorrect size in the presence of cross-sectional correlation. We suggest that a previously known estimator can be...

Recently, it has been suggested that the effect of government expenditure on private consumption is dependent on the level of public debt. More specifically, a higher public debt implies a less Keynesian response in private consumption. In this paper we investigate if this theory is supported by...

We examine the information content of a newly created news sentiment index from over 300,000 articles from some of the most widely read newspapers in the US to explain changes in the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment from 1995 to 2009. Using ARMA-models, we show that consumer...

Out of 11 questions included in the EU harmonised consumer questionnaire, it is possible to construct 2 047 different consumer confidence indicators. We search through all these indicators in order to find the single indicator that has the highest correlation with private consumption growth....

This paper examines the effects of fiscal policy on private consumption. The paper evaluates the assumption that the effects of fiscal policy are dependent on the public sector's financial situation, which changes the private sector's income expectations. For this purpose regression equations...

This paper analyses the relation between private and government consumption in 23 OECD countries between 1970 and 2001. In particular it addresses the issue of whether government consumption is a substitute for or a complement to private consumption. The empirical analysis is made with panel...