Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature,...

We develop a model of the gambler's fallacy -- the mistaken belief that random sequences should exhibit systematic reversals. We show that an individual who holds this belief and observes a sequence of signals can exaggerate the magnitude of changes in an underlying state but underestimate their...

This paper addresses the issue of the choice of the optimal instrument to sell new shares, this choice being price versus quantity discrimination (rationing). Previous results in the literature (Benveniste and Wilhelm, 1990) show that the issuing firm would be better off if allowed to use both...

A probability of a partner not fulfilling his forward contract obligations (contract failure) increases in a transition economy. This project investigates the process of price and quantity discovery in a laboratory setting when there is (1) an endogenous choice between forward and spot market...

Executive compensation has increased dramatically over the past 15 years, but so has forced CEO turnover. We argue that part of the development of CEO pay can be explained by the adverse consequences that forced turnover implies for a CEO. We ¯nd that for the CEOs of the largest US...